This CPU move is insane $AMD $META $INTC $ARM $RMBS Also the market seems to be appreciating $QCOM and $AIP as well today AIP finally hit my level I was watching this week after a few months QCOM I already own Nfa

I’ve been slowly building my hyperscaler port $amzn $goog $meta Broadening beyond my AI infra basket and into companies that will benefit from the buildout itself And yes the way I buy shares is chaotic

It's been posted! If you want to hear more on what some alternative options we have for deploying compute will look like and the companies that are positioned to benefit from this trend give it a read!

Some positive news for $NOK ... Rosenblatt initiated Nokia with a Buy and $15 PT this week. They highlighted Nokia’s growing share in scale-across, where design wins can be very sticky, alongside Optical Networks +20% YoY, AI & Cloud revenue +105%, and €2.8B of AI & Cloud orders. Their $15 SOTP assigns roughly 1/3 of Nokia’s value to AI infrastructure, with that mix potentially growing over time. But one opportunity I think still gets overlooked is ICE-D. We typically think about Nokia optics as moving data between data centers. ICE-D brings Nokia inside the data center. Nok makes PICs which are highly integrated InP chips combining lasers, modulators and photodetectors that is designed for 1.6T today and a path toward 3.2T. Nokia itself calls intra-DC optics and components a new addressable market, and is targeting architectures including LPO, NPO and CPO. The big unlock would be Nokia becoming a meaningful merchant optical component supplier, where its technology ends up inside modules sold by other manufacturers. (The linked article is irrelevant to this update. It's just an article that I really enjoyed writing on Nok)

Extremely relevant to an article I am writing up I had a call with a data center operator yesterday Mostly around where optical is going over the coming years. Outside of that though he was working on some really cool projects One trend is with distributed compute in these smaller modular builds Then there is another earlier market of using existing commercial infrastructure to deploy compute In this article I am writing up I dive into the conversation, what the future could look like, whats happening today, and who is set to benefit Cant wait to share! Its a handfull of companies Ive never discussed before.

$GFS + $MRVL just gave us a very clean read-through I haven't spent much time discussing GFS, but I think it's definitely time to revisit it and see if theres a good investment opportunity Read this: Yesterday MRVL expanded a multi-year agreement to add significant SiGe capacity at GFS fab. SiGe, silicon germanium, is used in the high-speed analog electronics around optical links. Think drivers and TIAs. GF says the added capacity will support: > Pluggable optical transceivers > Near-packaged optics (NPO) > Co-packaged optics (CPO) GF recently said photonics doubled last year and is expected to double again this year, with strong pluggable demand extending through 2027. Worth a look!

$MXL Showing solid relative strength lately My guess is today's move is supported by the $GFS $MRVL news yesterday $MRVL is locking down additional SiGe capacity because it sees growing demand for TIAs and drivers across pluggables, NPO and CPO. $MXL is ramping its own 200G/lane SiGe TIA into the same transition, alongside its 1.6T DSP.

The transition to NPO & CPO will be gradual $LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE $SMTC $NOK etc. There will be plenty of time for traditional pluggables and the contents inside them to continue to scale But we are seeing companies try to position themselves for the upcoming architectures by diversifying their portfolios and trying to sell more content into these up and coming systems

Tldr on the breadth of $LITE products > EML lasers - scale-out pluggables These are the lasers inside many 800G/1.6T optical transceivers connecting switches and servers across large AI clusters. As bandwidth moves higher, you need more high-speed optical lanes. Lumentum is one of the major suppliers of the lasers enabling them. > CW lasers - silicon photonics light source Silicon photonics chips manipulate the light and the cw is the source. These can feed silicon photonics in traditional optical modules today and increasingly NPO/CPO architectures going forward. > Ultra-high-power external lasers - CPO + NPO When the optical engine moves right next to an XPU or switch ASIC, heat becomes a huge issue. One solution is to move the laser OUTSIDE the package. Lumentum supplies the high-power external light source and sends the light into the optical engines. $LITE says essentially all CPO uses an external light source, while a meaningful portion of NPO is moving this direction too. > OCS - Optical Circuit Switching Instead of converting traffic from optical → electrical → optical every time you want to change its path, an OCS can physically redirect the light itself. Fiber comes in → tiny mirrors redirect the beam → fiber goes out. That can reduce power and create much more flexible AI clusters. Lumentum says customer engagement here has expanded well beyond what it originally expected. > Pump + narrow-linewidth lasers - scale-across As AI campuses spread across multiple buildings or data centers, coherent optics become increasingly important. Those coherent systems need pump lasers and narrow-linewidth lasers. Lumentum says it expects roughly a 4x increase in pump-laser volumes over the next five quarters. And eventually… Scale-in → even more optics moving toward the compute package

If you want a good optics article to start, read this $LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE $NOK etc. Understanding the shift from: Traditional Pluggable Transceviers to NPO & CPO Is really important if you want to invest in optical companies. I laid it out in a simple to understand but still moderately technical way in this article. This could serve as a good foundation to then build upon and see where value shifts as we move optics deeper into the rack Give it a read!

$CIEN Price Target Changes/Reaffirms Northland: $500 → $550 Barclays: $475 → $548 Morgan Stanley: $425 → $450 Yesterday's news was very meaningful for the long term thesis for Ciena To sum up some comments: 1 - Higher long-term earnings power. 2 - A financial framework ahead of existing Street estimates. 3 - Potential upside from opportunities that management has yet to fully bake into the long-term model. NFA/Long Ciena

I have found $FN quite attractive at these levels and higher since that post earnings drop I have personally been slowly DCA shares for the long term over the past couple weeks (multi Q mindset) It lacks momentum and is one of the weaker optical companies right now. So I do not have high hopes for a good swing trade. Maybe it can see ~$360 if we have another optical/semi selloff But if I am thinking from a downside protected standpoint for my long term investments, FN is definitely up there relative to many other optical companies at this price NFA

Sometimes the market gives us gifts $smtc After an awesome print & call, SMTC dipped in the 125 area Which is where it was right before the print But everything pointed in the other direction New ATH just hit Hopefully it breaks out, but regardless, very excited for the next few Q's

One of the biggest long-term questions for $ALAB was... What happens when more AI connections move from copper to optics? That could obviously look like a threat to an electrical connectivity company. But like many of these companies, ALAB is trying to turn it into a much bigger content opportunity. Today, ALAB is best known for electrical connectivity: Things like PCIe retimers, CXL, AECs, Scorpio switches. But as bandwidth keeps increasing, more of those links eventually need to become optical like always talk about. ALAB said "hold my beer". They want to be able to supply a complete optical engine. So the electrical IC + photonics IC + fiber attachment + packaging while still supporting customers that want to use their own photonics. Then also today, Scorpio X connects XPUs primarily through electrical links. Longer term, Astera can optically enable that system with: XPU → Astera optical engine → fiber → Astera optical engine → Scorpio X So one optical link can potentially create Astera content on both ends. Mgmt said the long-term opportunity could reach multiple thousands of dollars per XPU. I don't own shares because like babyfolio ive always had a hardtime with the price. But the story is quite strong

$CIEN just laid out a much stronger long-term growth framework > targeting roughly 30% revenue CAGR from FY26 through FY29. That would take revenue from about $6.4B today to roughly $14B by FY29. At the same time, management is targeting ~50% adjusted gross margins, 32–35% adjusted operating margins, and ~20% free-cash-flow margins. The new Interconnects reporting segment should also make its AI/data-center exposure much easier for investors to see and value. Overall, the update strengthens the case that Ciena’s current growth cycle could extend well beyond FY27 and come with major operating leverage.