量化基金的崩盘，其实是市场规律早已写好的结局——不是今天，但最多一年内，一定会发生，然后整个市场被迫洗牌、重启。 为什么？因为人性+数学，注定会走到这一步。 一开始，量化基金凭什么吸引人？程序化交易、每天吃市场波动、回撤小、夏普比率高，看起来几乎是“稳赚不赔”的范式。散户和游资动不动就亏钱，量化赚的正是他们迟钝的止损止盈差价。 于是大家理性了：打不过就加入呗。我要是有一百万，我也想买量化私募啊。 可问题就出在这儿——个体理性，带来了集体非理性。 当越来越多资金涌入量化，市场成交里量化占比从现在的3成，冲到5成、6成时，赚钱的前提就崩了。本来你是靠“别人不理性”来套利，现在大家都理性了、都用同一套模型、同一套止盈止损参数，那还能赚谁的钱？只剩下量化和量化之间互相掏口袋。 结果就是：大家止损线都极度敏感，任何一点流动性冲击、宏观风吹草动，都会瞬间变成多杀多。你先触发止损砸盘，砸到我的止损线，我再砸下去……死亡螺旋，一路往下滚，直到崩盘。 这不是猜想，是必然的悖论。只要人类还贪婪，只要出现一种“长期稳赚”的投资范式，就一定会有人疯狂模仿，最终把这个范式亲手杀死。历史上美国2007年就上演过：市场中性量化策略一周回撤30%，连环爆仓，把前一年赚的全吐回去。 所以最可怕的不是崩盘本身，而是这个循环几乎无法避免。在任何一个有人类的平行宇宙里，都会反复上演：发现金矿→蜂拥而入→金矿失效→集体崩盘→洗牌重开→下一轮新范式诞生…… 我现在看那些还在拼命把100万交给量化私募的散户，既羡慕又心疼。他们可能吃不到多少肉，但崩盘那天，一定有他们一份。 市场从来不怜悯后知后觉的理性。 早点参与，或者干脆别碰。
永远没有永远稳赚的资产，只有永远在轮动的贪婪。 #量化基金# #市场规律# #多杀多# #投资哲学#

Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes was born in Detroit, USA, in 1985. He later moved with his parents to Buffalo, New York, where he attended the Nichols School—a private preparatory school located in the city. In 2004, Hayes began his undergraduate studies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His notable alumni peers include @realDonaldTrump , @elonmusk,  @WarrenBuffett  and others. Subsequently, Justin Sun @justinsun enrolled in a master's program in Political Economy at the University of Pennsylvania, thereby fulfilling his aspiration to become an alumnus alongside the aforementioned figures. In 2008, following his graduation from the Wharton School, Hayes joined the trading division at Deutsche Bank (Hong Kong), marking the beginning of his career as a derivatives trading specialist. In 2011, Hayes moved to the derivatives trading division at Citi (Hong Kong). In 2014, Arthur Hayes co-founded BitMEX alongside Ben Delo and Samuel Reed, focusing primarily on the trading of crypto asset derivatives. Ben Peter Delo @bendelo   is a co-founder and co-owner of BitMEX. And during the relevant Period , he has been the Chief Operating Officer of BitMEX.  He is a U.K. citizen and graduated from Worcester College, Oxford University in 2005 with a degree in Mathematics and Computer Science. He has never been registered with the Commission in any capacity.  After graduating, Ben joined IBM as a software engineer. Later, he developed high-frequency trading systems for the hedge fund GSA Capital and JPMorgan Chase. Samuel Reed @STRML_ borned in1990， is a co-founder and co-owner of BitMEX, and describes himself as Chief Technology Officer of BitMEX.  He is a U.S. citizen and has resided in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and Boston, Massachusetts during the Relevant Period.  Samuel graduated from Washington & Lee University with a degree in Computer Science and was served as CTO of two technology companies: Tixelated and Global Brand Solutions of Hong Kong. During the Relevant Period, Reed has held his ownership interest in the BitMEX entities through a Wisconsin limited liability company that maintains bank accounts at banks in the United States, and owns property in the U.S. Reed has never been registered with the Commission in any capacity. Hayes, Delo, and Reed have shared responsibility for various aspects of the  BitMEX business. At a high level, Delo has been responsible for building and overseeing the BitMEX trading engine, Reed has been responsible for building and overseeing the BitMEX website, API and order entry system, and Hayes has been responsible for strategic decisions, business development, marketing, and management of the BitMEX enterprise.  @TheJusticeDept @CFTC  @USDOJ_Intl   @bitmex @BitMEX_Ethan @Crypto_slutz @r_polansky @sudhu_aru @BitMEX_sandisam @business @markets @BloombergAsia @Reuters @watcherguru @zachxbt @insiderwire @WhalePanda @Tintinx2021 @yq_acc @RichardPtardio @JamesWynnReal @muphasamc @huskyXBT @JSeyff @0xcryptosam @degeneratenews @crypto_condom