Also, because it taped early Friday morning, anything that happened since that morning was not covered - not on purpose but because it hadn’t happened yet. Ie Susie Wiles resignation, Calley Means on Rogan etc. Episode dropping shortly. It’s in post now…

“— most traffic comes between 9 to 5 when people are at work (using Airbnb as escapism)” I believe this and other forms of escapism (X, YouTube, games, shopping) are where most of the current productivity gains in AI have gone.

He who shapes power, data centers, chips and models into an economically feasible endpoint, disproportionately shapes AI/SI right now. Why? Power is THE binding constraint in AI/SI. Few really have it. Data centers don’t work without power. This is not about promises of power tomorrow. Or forecasted power in 2028. Power TODAY. Chips can’t operate profitably unless installed in a functional data center. If you can install chips, it’s because you’ve solved the power problem. Models aren’t economically viable unless run on cost effective infrastructure which requires a functional data center with low input costs and reliable management. This can’t happen without power. AI/SI ROI doesn’t pencil unless models generate profitable outputs which necessarily needs functional data centers as the critical input. Again, power. Ergo, he who can shape data centers, chips and models together into a tightly coordinated stack is someone who has solved power. Solving power allows you to disproportionately shape AI/SI right now.

Super interesting comparison of GPU finance and the AI buildout to airlines. I’ve seen two other people make this comparison now: 1. Ken Griffin 2. Sridhar Ramaswamy Both are very, very smart so worth learning more.

As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing: 1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however. 2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3). 3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening. All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one). This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them. 2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.

“We tried to get Claude to write it, but it did a poor, sloppy job and we had to spend a lot more time editing than we expected (don’t tell him we said that, just in case…). Perhaps there’s a lesson to be learned there. Claude also didn’t like our references to specific companies – one in particular. He preferred “standalone model developer”. So, our legal team would like us to point out that any reference to companies, products or individuals is illustrative and does not describe or imply their actual conduct, financial condition or intentions. It is a work of fiction, and any remaining errors are the fault of AI. As we know, AI “just does stuff sometimes” and no human should ever be held accountable for its actions. AI moves in mysterious ways.”

David Friedberg: France’s Crisis Is a Warning for America “France is a bellwether for the West. So take a look at this chart. This chart is a measure of public spending as a percent of GDP. And you can see the comparison of France's public spending as a % of GDP to the peak public spending as a % of GDP of major communist nations.” @Chamath: “So do you think France is a communist state? They spend like it.” @Jason: “Well, it's certainly been a socialist state, right?” Chamath: “Is it working?” @Friedberg: “That's my point. And I think this is such a prescient lesson for the West to look at. We all think that there's some political problem with Macron or whoever it was. The more the government spends, the worse the conditions get for its people, not the opposite, and then the people riot and revolt. Take a guess where the US is today. US public spending is roughly 36% of GDP. France today is operating its national government spending deficit is 5.4% of GDP. The US is actually 6.2% of GDP. France is, I think, probably the first to go because they're only growing their economy at half a percent while the US is growing at 2.3%. So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together. But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff which leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France. All the economic measures are aligned, we're at the same rate, we're at the same set of problems, and we're starting to see the cracks in the system. There's probably a multi-year solution.”

Founders send me pitches every day. Here’s a better way: come to our hackathon! EVOLVE: 20 hours, overnight at 8090 in Redwood City, Nov 13–14. Build AI agents and tools that build software. The winning team, beyond recognition and a cool trophy gets two 1:1s with me, to help you refine a pitch or idea and then a follow-up. Use the time however you want. Ask me for advice, ask me for money or just make fun of me. All allowed if you win! Apply:

It’s all about clips. I see it at Beast Industries where I’m on the board. I see it with All In where I am on the show. I think people don’t understand that content preferences will evolve around this time constraint. It’s already come for movies. It will come for sports next.