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Shanu Mathew
@ShanuMathew93
Energy Abundance, AI Power & Data Centers, NBA, & Rap posts. Background in equity & credit markets, startups, & IB. Personal views NOT employers. NOT advice.
Joined June 2019
2K Following    36.3K Followers
Gigabrains help me out: GS puts required annual hyperscale AI revenue at $526bn, based on average annual capex across 2026 and 2027 and a 20% hyperscaler ROIC. I assume OpenAI and Anthropic have similar ARR, GW capacity and inference share, with $20bn of revenue per blended GW and $50bn per monetized GW (40% of capacity monetized). Today, combined ARR is ~$75bn on 3.5-4GW, or ~$20bn per GW for Ant (OAI is close to $70bn now so lets just assume the same for both). Each lab goes from ~2GW to 5GW by YE26 and 10GW by YE27. >YE26: 5GW x $20bn = $100bn per lab. The monetized route agrees: 40% x 5GW = 2GW x $50bn = $100bn. >YE27: 10GW x $20bn = $200bn per lab (4GW monetized x $50bn). Two labs at YE27 give $400bn of implied lab ARR. That leaves ~$126bn of the $526bn for everyone else: non-lab hyperscaler revenue, agentic software, Muse/Instinct, other labs, routers and harness companies. Attainable or not? That all assumes pricing and revenue per GW don't come down as well for the labs. Am I thinking about this right? Feel free to critique/debate anything I laid out @JaredKubin @azeem @GavinSBaker @WarrenPies @FredaDuan @altcap @_clarktang @TBU12345678 @TMTLongShort @zephyr_z9
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