$LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE
Very BULLISH expert interview on $COHR just hit. The volume tape is not a 2025 story.
800G pluggables: 3.1 million units in 2025 at $415 ASP → 7.4 million in 2026, even with ASP down to $370.
1.6T still scaling to 3.2 million units in 2026.
OCS is huge too. 1,400 units this year, $GOOG took ~1,300 of them.
Roadmap is 4,400 in 2027 ($GOOG ~4,000, $NVDA starting) and 10,500 in 2028 if validation holds, with $META first 500.
They already doubled 6-inch InP in H1. Doubling again in 2027 for CW lasers, EML, NPO and CPO.
$NVDA is 48% of optical module sales. $GOOG 23%.
This just shows how the bottleneck is getting wider, not closing. Lasers, InP and the module complex are still early.
Position accordingly.
We are long many of the stocks mentioned here, NFA.
PS: Credits to
@pequityresearch for sharing this information!